|
The
Real Scoop on Annuities
Steve Selengut
Insurance
companies have always been major financial institutions, and
they could probably have claimed possession of the largest and
safest investment portfolios on the planet. At one time, their
role vis-a-vis Wall Street was clearly that of a giant customer
for the securities that the investment banks and securities
firms brought to market. Their real estate holdings were religious
in size and quality. They were direct lenders to corporations,
their owner-policyholders, and to other institutions. They were
the Trustees who managed the private employee pension plans
of the world.
Insurance
companies sold life insurance policies and annuity contracts
that contained guaranteed benefits that depended on their ability
to invest safely and soundly. They sold investment management
services that built upon their legendary reputation as an industry
built upon guarantees, trust, and financial integrity. They
were not known for the production of unusually high rates of
return, but they were one of only three entities allowed to
utter the sacred g-word, and the only one that marketed products
that protected people from the financial vagaries of life and
death. It was a simpler world then, one less prone to the conflicts
of interest, scandals, and financial disruptions that exist
on the modern Wall Street.
Today, it's
difficult to distinguish one financial institution from another
as they compete for an ever-growing pool of investment dollars.
Insurance companies, now publicly owned, have become an integral
part of an industry that seems uninterested in protecting anything
other than their obscenely paid leaders.
The time-honored
distinction of the annuity contract was the guaranteed retirement
benefit it provided. The "you will never outlive your income"
boast could not be uttered by any other financial entity! The
annuity contract itself was never intended to be an investment
product, although the disciplined savings element was given
well-deserved emphasis. This was the original old age and disability
retirement program--- a contributory, trustee directed, investment
account that anyone could have for a few bucks a week. Like
bank savings accounts and federal government securities, risk
of loss was not a factor, and the guarantee was a benefit well
worth the lower than market yield.
Over a hundred
years, the concept became generic: Annuity = Guarantee--- safe,
solid, and virtually risk free. Equities were nowhere to be
seen; derivatives had yet to come of age; neither seemed necessary.
The guarantee was enough--- it still is, but annuities are really
best suited to retirees, and/or the healthy poor.
Annuities
were developed for the protection of the indigent--- people
without the assets needed to generate enough income to sustain
them in retirement. An annuity is a series of identical payments
made over a specific period of time. Any departure from a plain
vanilla, one-life, annuity reduces the payout because of additional
time, cash back, or life contingencies. In its purist form,
a fixed amount is paid to the annuitant until his or her death.
Any leftover funds belong to the company, and the company continues
to pay those who live longer than predicted by the actuarial
tables--- a simple concept, actuarially pure, easy to deal with,
and with no surprises (until the government decreed that men
are required to live as long as women).
Annuitants
would never outlive their income, but absolutely nothing would
be passed on to their heirs; a dismal prospect for the kids,
but a valuable benefit for the retiree. I don't know about you,
but this sure sounds like a great way to fund a Social Security
program! The companies make enough money on the plain vanilla
variety to pay their salespeople between 8% and 12%. Typically,
they lock-up the money for eight to twelve years with large
penalties and pocket most of the additional income that their
actual investment and expense experience produces--- but for
those who can't fund their own retirements, this is entirely
acceptable. A mandatory, fixed annuity based Social Security
really needs to be considered to replace the counter-productive
system in effect today.
Enter the
modern day Variable Annuity oxymoron, sold by an industry that
has lost touch with its noble roots, if not the realities of
the stock market. The sales pitch emphasizes the prospect of
gains in the market rather than the safety and security of the
contract. Hundreds of insurance-annuity companies sell their
Mutual Funds to unsuspecting retirees, in the form of a much-more-speculative-than-meets-the-eye
retirement program. In it's zeal to claim its share of the investment
dollar, the industry has rationalized away the risk of equity
investments. Financial Planning computer models are programmed
to include variable annuities in their asset allocations, shifting
the retirement income risk to the consumer. And it's such an
easy sell because what the customer hears is: a guaranteed retirement
income plus stock market appreciation.
Unfortunately,
the stock market never has been able to generate guaranteed
levels of income, and sometimes fails to move higher just because
we think it should. Serious problems occur when mutual funds
are packaged with annuity contracts and the critical differences
between them are either overlooked or undisclosed, perhaps innocently,
perhaps not. The founding fathers of the annuity contract would
not be pleased with today's glitzy versions. Let's back up a
century and consider some basics. Just who needs an annuity
anyway?
Keep in
mind that the annuity produces the largest possible commissions
for the salesperson and the largest potential penalties for
the purchaser. The variable variety adds the commissions from
the mutual funds to the package, and uncertainty to the income
benefit. Here's how to determine if an annuity makes sense economically.
Is it clear that there is no such thing as a guaranteed variable
annuity? The key suitability numbers are easy to develop and
to analyze.
The most
important number in the equation is your personal expense estimate.
How much income is needed at retirement? Always estimate conservatively
(that means to use numbers higher than you really expect). If
you need a calculator, you're making it too difficult.
Let's pretend
that the number you decide upon is $48,000, or $4,000 per month.
Next, subtract the amount of any guaranteed income you expect
to receive from all sources, including social security, pensions,
etc. Do not include the value of your investments or properties
you plan to sell in this calculation. Again, be conservative,
keeping your estimate a bit lower than what you actually expect,
and make sure you know why investment earnings should not be
included. Let's say that this number works out to be $27,000.
That's it.
Now all you have to do is to determine if the investment portfolio
can safely generate the difference of $21,000 per year in income
(dividends and interest only, please). For the purposes of this
analysis, the current market value of the portfolio is used,
so make sure that you include the value of everything that is
marketable. At today's interest rates you could get the job
done safely with under $300,000 but not with normal equity mutual
funds or any form of Index Fund.
It is totally
irresponsible (actually, its worse than that) to rely on equities
to provide retirement income. BUT, if the numbers are just short,
and (a) a "windfall" (inheritance) is anticipated
within a few years, or (b) the retiree is in poor health, an
annuity is the last thing that should be considered! You should
be able to invest the money conservatively, generate adequate
income and have an estate left over for the heirs. Remember
to satisfy the income need before looking at equities. There
are no exceptions.
So here
we have a last resort product, designed for the poor, that the
industry has chrome plated, spit-polished, and supercharged
for marketing to people who should know better than to include
equities in an income portfolio. Why? Is it because financial
pros really think these products are universally suitable? Is
it the commissions? Or is RISK just a board game that they played
in college?
Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.investmentmanagementbooks.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor:
The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and
"A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"
|